In August 2020, when Lille OSC spent $35 million to bring Jonathan David across the border from Belgian club Gent (Via Sports Illustrated), no one would have predicted four years later the 24-year-old would be potentially set to leave the Ligue 1 club for free.
A move which goes against everything LOSC’s well oiled transfer policy has become famous for.
Before David, there was Victor Osimhen. Bought from Charleroi for €22.4m and sold to Napoli just 12 months later for a fee close to €80m. The move for the Nigerian striker was only made possible due to the sale of Nicholas Pepe to Arsenal for again around €80m. His €18m move from Angers made the Northern French club another €60m
When you can count a profit of €120m on two forwards, it feels a safer bet to make David the most expensive Canadian footballer to date.
Back in midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, no one at Les Dogues would have ever imagined he would end up potentially making a huge loss.
What happened?
For KAA Gent, David played 50 games in the Juplier Pro League, scoring 26 times and adding 12 assists. Rather than playing as a lone frontman, the young attacker was used in various roles within their 4-3-1-2 system.
Either deployed as the No.10 behind the attackers – in what Football Manager players would now know as the Shadow Striker – or as one of the two forwards.
Watching highlights from the 2020 season, Lille fans would be forgiven in not recognising his performances. Rarely is he the main focus of the frontline. Counter-attacks would see him making runs from deep, or peeling right or left off the main striker.
Yet, they’ll see traits which have brought him success at the Stade Pierre Mauroy. The knack of being in the right place at the right time, instinctively finishing when chances fall to him.
After making the big money move to France’s top flight, the jury was most definitely out as David failed to score in his first ten games. This is not what the fans were used to from previous striking heroes like Pepe and Osimhem and the murmurs of discontent had begun.
Scoring the fourth in a 4-0 win over Lorient in November got him off the mark. For a player under pressure, he showed good composure to take a touch before applying the finish.
Twelve more goals would follow in the 2020/21 campaign as Lille would shock everyone to win the Ligue 1 title over Paris Saint-Germain. David firing Les Dogues ahead in their title winning victory away at Angers SCO on the final day.
Under Christophe Galtier, the team played 4-4-2, with the Canadian paired with Burak Yilmaz, the 35-year-old journeyman striker who had the season of his life. The partnership was ideal. Both liked to drop and link up play, with the Turk the bigger of the two also acting as more of a target-man in leaving David to take similar positions to his time in Gent.
His 13 strikes were perfectly complemented by Burak’s 16 goals and five assists, culminating in a perfect storm for the unlikely Champions of France.
Galtier left almost as soon as the title party was over. Jocelyn Gourvennec would take over the reins and the drop off would be vast.
Whatever magic formula the title winning coach had sprinkled on Burak left with him, a year on, he would only score seven times and Lille would finish 10th in Ligue 1 despite Jonathan David’s 15 league goals.
The 22-year-old was now, more often than not, the leading striker.
A highlight of the season was a double at home to Marseille. The first he forced home from close range after the OM defence failed to clear Zeki Celik’s cross. Deep in injury time he sealed the win, doing what he does best, a first-time finish from Timothy Weah’s left footed cross. This is when David is at his best. No time to think, showing his positioning ability and putting away a chance from close range.
As Lille struggled, David struggled. In the last 20 games of the season, the striker only scored in three fixtures. This is not what the club had paid €30m for, and around the time Lille’s strikers would be gaining attention from would-be suitors, all was quiet on the Northern front.
Fonseca Factor
It was no surprise to anyone when Gourvennec was removed and former Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma coach Paulo Fonseca was brought in.
On the surface, the 2022/23 season was better for all involved. David finished with 24 league goals and Lille finished fifth. Just missing out on fourth after drawing 1-1 away to Troyes on the final day.
Although there is a skill to scoring from the penalty spot. The 10 penalties David scored somewhat inflated his scoring prowess. In the social media world, where tiktok is king, it is easy to report someone’s numbers without context and this was beginning to come apparent with the narrative around the Canadian forward.
Using Understat.com, David finished fourth in Ligue 1 for xG with 25.03. Just behind Kylian Mbappe on 27.80, Lyon’s Alexandre Lacazette (27.38) and Florin Balogun at Reims (26.04). However, when you look at Non-Penalty xG (NPxG) it drops to 16.66 and the 23-year-old was seventh in the league.
The biggest criticism towards the forward is the amount of 1v1 chances, or opportunities from open play in which you can’t help but thinking he should do better. Understat plots 17 chances from open play, inside the box, in which the striker misses the target completely. A further 16 which were blocked and a whopping 26 saved by goalkeepers.
Mapping the saved shots, you’ll see a huge increase in the xG, too many in the 0.30 or above area.
Once, in a conversation with a scout, a comment which always stuck in my mind when judging a striker is to look where the shots are placed. Is the striker finding the corners? Or is there an element of fortune to the goals finding the back of the net, or perhaps bad goalkeeping etc?
In the past two seasons, those words continue to nag away whenever watching Jonathan David fail to score for Lille. Despite his 43 goals in two seasons, the want to see him leave the club grows stronger every day.
It feels ridiculous to be writing this in a critical way when only two strikers in Lille’s history have scored more than the Canadian. His 86 strikes put him behind only Jean Baratte on 97 and the 112 from Andre Strappe – both born in the 1920s.
The only modern day player on the list a casual fan would recognise is Eden Hazard with 50 goals. Nicholas Pepe, Nolan Roux and Yohan Cabaye scored 37. Moussa Sow and Gervinho finished with 36 and former Chelsea forward Salomon Kalou rounds out the club’s top 30 with 34.
There is one huge factor in why David is so high up the list. The 2024/25 campaign will be his fifth at the club. Osimhen got one year, Pepe two, even the likes of Sow, Divock Origi or Peter Odemwingie weren’t around for more than two full seasons to match those kinds of numbers.
It is something which is evident in most Ligue 1 clubs, whether it’s a player or a manager. Either you catch the eye and your’re snapped up within two seasons, or you’ve shown you aren’t good enough and are shipped out.
A striker playing for five seasons at Lille is unheard of, especially in the era of moneyball, when the club buys a potential talent and then sells on for a profit.
€30m was always a lot of money for the club to spend on someone, but at the time the people in charge would have been confident in at least doubling their return. Now, with just 12 months left on his deal, there isn’t going to be a good outcome for Lille.
Either, David moves for €30m this summer – which seems to be scuppered by his agent demanding around €10m for himself (Source Give Me Sport)- and Lille break even. Or the 24-year-old spends another season in Ligue 1 and leaves for free next summer.
In the last 10 years, LOSC has been known as a selling club. You can add Andre Onana, Yves Bissouma, Carlos Baleba and Rafa Leao to the long list of players the club has made a huge profit on.
Scouts are definitely watching Lille. There is absolutely no chance Jonathan David has gone under the radar.
With so many eyes on the club, you have to wonder why his 71 league goals in four seasons hasn’t been enough to spark a bidding war.
Or is it that scouts know more than people posting pure stats on social media graphics? The eyes don’t lie.
Question marks must exist over his ability to lead the line, especially when so many clubs don’t play with two strikers anymore. When chances are at a premium, can you rely on someone who struggles in 1v1 situations?
There is no doubting his work rate. He leads the line well and he willingly runs the channels. His work rate and desire to be in the right place when the ball is in and around the box is great. In a results business, when the margins between success and failure are so small, that might not be enough.
In the right environment, with support around him or a proper no.9 strike partner, David could still thrive. Especially if in 12 months time he is a free, low risk, signing for someone.
For Lille, despite his goals, it has to go down as a failure financially off the pitch, and a disappointment on it.
Written by Andrew Gibney, former French Football expert and all round ok guy!
Posted on July 30th, 2024 by scott
Filed under: Article | No Comments »